Spoke with Robert Campbell today
I had a really long chat on the phone with Robert Campbell, author of The Real Estate Timing Newsletter today.
I gave a presentation at one of his seminars a few months ago and we’ve in touch ever since. I like the way he thinks. He does a lot of research and crunches the numbers about the economic trends and tries to figure out which way the market is heading.
He’s pretty bearish about the economy in general and the home prices in San Diego which he thinks will drop 40%. [I actually think prices will drop 45%, so I joked that he was being optimistic!]. He thinks that the economy will see a recession in the next few years and I tend to believe him. But thats a topic for another day.
He has a methodology[which is outlined in his book] which he uses to forecast the market trends for home prices in any given location. Historically its had an 80% accuracy rate which is pretty good. His indicator just flashed a sell signal back in August for San Diego so if any of you reading this are in SoCal, nows the time to get out.
I got out exactly at that time and I no longer own anything in California. As I’ve mentioned in my previous posts, I’m investing in Boise and Utah both of which flashed buy signals using his methodology [something verified by a geeky friend of mine]
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January 14th, 2006 at 5:22 pm
I was up in Boise the past 2 weeks looking for homes as investments, no way would I buy there now. my brother bought 3 homes in late aug. 05, meridian area, for $137,500 to 140,000 newer within 7 yrs old, 1,200 sq as smallest. the same size homes in same neighborhood are now going at 185,000 to 193,000. all the agents up there are saying what a great deal and you can rent out for 950- 1,100 a month. Well at my P& I, ins & taxes, that may be fine, But and the real word is But, checking many, many homes in same area for rent, rents are down to 750- 850 month and taking 3 months to rent. This i do not call any deals, i am now looking at Palmdale to buy in as i can get homes there for 185,000 -200,000, just as nice as boise, BUT can rent them out for $1,600 to $1,900 a month, now that I call a investment. I have never seen so many rental signs out as i have these past 2 weeks up there. Seems like every 4th home on a street has a for rent sign out front. What a sorry mess you agents have done to that city and area. Regards, Dan Winters, investor from Calif.