Spoke with Robert Campbell today
I had a really long chat on the phone with Robert Campbell, author of The Real Estate Timing Newsletter today.
I gave a presentation at one of his seminars a few months ago and we’ve in touch ever since. I like the way he thinks. He does a lot of research and crunches the numbers about the economic trends and tries to figure out which way the market is heading.
He’s pretty bearish about the economy in general and the home prices in San Diego which he thinks will drop 40%. [I actually think prices will drop 45%, so I joked that he was being optimistic!]. He thinks that the economy will see a recession in the next few years and I tend to believe him. But thats a topic for another day.
He has a methodology[which is outlined in his book] which he uses to forecast the market trends for home prices in any given location. Historically its had an 80% accuracy rate which is pretty good. His indicator just flashed a sell signal back in August for San Diego so if any of you reading this are in SoCal, nows the time to get out.
I got out exactly at that time and I no longer own anything in California. As I’ve mentioned in my previous posts, I’m investing in Boise and Utah both of which flashed buy signals using his methodology [something verified by a geeky friend of mine]
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- Utah Housing still booming According to the Salt Lake Tribune Utah housing is still doing well. Utah's home price appreciation, the worst in the country just three years ago, is now the 10th best nationwide. Home prices statewide rose 15.2 percent in the year that ended in June, according to a report released Tuesday......
- Home Prices Fall 9.7%: An Explanation Rather than paraphrase the explanations and pretend I'm intelligent, I'll just paste them below. These were taken from today's Wall Street Journal.U.S. new-home sales jumped unexpectedly in September by 5.3%, but prices were lower. The average price of a new home decreased to $293,200 in September, from $314,000 in August......
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Home Prices Hot In Some Areas The Wall Street Journal reports that not all places are experiencing a decline in home prices.The housing news isn't all grim. Even as prices sag nationwide, there are several cities in the country where home values are climbing smartly.Portland, Ore., Boise, Idaho, Seattle, Salt Lake City, Houston, Austin, and Charlotte......
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- Does anyone REALLY know what they are Talking about With Housing Prices? As I was sitting in the dentistâs office waiting for them to call me in so I can get 3 cavities filled (yeah my mouth hurts as I write this) I was reading cnbc.com headlines on my phone and I saw an article that just really made my blood boil.......
- Clarks Wins Players Tim Clark won his first PGA title on Sunday, and a hefty $1.71 million prize purse, by winning the Players tournament at Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. Clark has long been regarded by golfing fans and experts as one of the best players competing today without a single title under his......
- Record Drop in Home Prices Not all it Seems? Here's an article from the AP that now reads "S&P index shows plunge in November home prices", though when I found it yesterday the headline was "S&P index shows posts sharpest decline in home prices on record"! I think you'll agree the latter is a bit more eye catching,......
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January 14th, 2006 at 5:22 pm
I was up in Boise the past 2 weeks looking for homes as investments, no way would I buy there now. my brother bought 3 homes in late aug. 05, meridian area, for $137,500 to 140,000 newer within 7 yrs old, 1,200 sq as smallest. the same size homes in same neighborhood are now going at 185,000 to 193,000. all the agents up there are saying what a great deal and you can rent out for 950- 1,100 a month. Well at my P& I, ins & taxes, that may be fine, But and the real word is But, checking many, many homes in same area for rent, rents are down to 750- 850 month and taking 3 months to rent. This i do not call any deals, i am now looking at Palmdale to buy in as i can get homes there for 185,000 -200,000, just as nice as boise, BUT can rent them out for $1,600 to $1,900 a month, now that I call a investment. I have never seen so many rental signs out as i have these past 2 weeks up there. Seems like every 4th home on a street has a for rent sign out front. What a sorry mess you agents have done to that city and area. Regards, Dan Winters, investor from Calif.