Friday Rant
I came across this article last night, 32 Reasons Why The Stock Market Will Jump This Year.
While its written as a serious prediction, I personally feel its more like a christmas wish list or a list of finalist answers at the Miss World Beauty Pagent!. Here are some of the gems
#1. Housing and Auto-manufacturing weakness will subside
Based on what? Major layoffs in both industries?
#5. Unemployment with stay at record lows.
Hmm…with the massive layoffs in Housing and Auto-manufacturing, you really think so?
#7. Inflation will continue to decelerate, with CPI averaging around 2.0%.
Hmm…ever since the minimum wage was jacked up, small business around where I live jacked up the price of everything along with it. That doesn’t sound like low inflation to me. Anyone who thinks that CPI is an accurate measure of inflation makes way too much money to begin with. Once you take out all the factors that cause inflation, of course you’ll be left with 2%. What a doofus.
#11. The US Dollar will firmer up and even maybe become stronger
With almost all the worlds major currencies strengthening against the USD how is this going to happen? Oh yeah, Bank of Japan is enforcing a weak Yen policy. And of course the USD will strengthen against the Iraqi Dinar! And with China owning a Trillion USD do you think a strong Dollar is actually in our interest????
#12. The U.S. budget deficit, which is currently 1.5% of GDP, well below the 40-year average of 2.3% of GDP, will continue to trend lower as healthy economic activity continues to boost tax receipts substantially more than estimates.
Uh…isn’t the US GDP is currently mainly comprised of government spending? Thats not really a show of healthy economic activity. Although it is true that the tax receipts are up more than estimated.
#15. The mania for commodities will completely end.
Yeah Right!!! All those millions of people in India and China who can now afford to buy a car and a decent place to live will choose to buy plastic go-karts and tents instead of regular cars and houses that use steel & copper. Is he completely blind to the global industrialization thats taking place? Every year China adds to its electricity generating capacity by the same amount as the entire UK. This electricity comes from coal and is used to make more cars and power more houses. The dude’s smoking crack now.
#16. Oil falls to $35 to $40 per barrel and eventually $20-$25.
#19. Gas prices will drop below $4/mcf.
#20. Gold will drop below $550 per ounce
This was written on the 1st of Feb 2007 when Oil was around $50/barrel. Its since gone up to nearly $60 and is probably on its way up. Corn has quadrupled to over $4/bushel making ethanol almost as expensive as gasoline now. Similarly Gold is also up to $665. I actually bought some GLD (the gold ETF) 2 days ago and I’m already up 7%. I predict its going to $800 in 2 years.
#17. Peace in the Middle East.
HAHAHA.
Some of the points are actually valid, but the ones I’ve mentioned are pretty stupid. Like I’ve said before, I’ve taken exactly opposite bets in my stock investing, so of course my views are out of line with the authors.
What do you think?
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February 9th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Compare the NDX and SPX charts recently and last May. I believe we could be in the start of another collapse as in May 2006. I’d bet it will be worse and be the 4 year cycle bear market many have been waiting for. But mostly I just trade short-term anyway. If there is a crash/bear market I will then switch my investment portfolio to much longer stocks than it is now. I am in the low inflation believer camp though. I doubt that the US will have a severe recession. Worst case a repeat of 2001. Maybe just a slowdown.