Should Congress Bail-Out The Auto Industry?
I got into a lively debate yesterday with a fellow student about the bailout of the auto-industry. He said the social ramifications of letting them fail were too high. The impact on the local communities would be too high and so they should be bailed out by the tax-payers.
I said they were not cost-effective and there wasn’t enough demand for their cars to keep them in business. Even if the government gave them $25 billion, they’d plow through it and be back at the door asking for another handout. The government, too ashamed to admit it had wasted the first $25 billion would probably hand them another $25 billion. (This is called the Concorde effect, after the failed Concorde partnership between England and France which was a financial disaster).
I read some articles with also drew similar conclusions, but with different viewpoints.
In 2006, the average hourly wage of a person with a high school diploma was $13.46 per hour. For those fortunate enough to receive insurance and other forms of compensation, the average was $17.50 per hour in total compensation. These averages encompass all age groups.
However, if you are a Detroit auto worker with a high school diploma, your total compensation comes to: $67.78 (Ford), $70.43 (GM) or $72.59 (Chrysler) per hour.
That’s right, it cost Detroit 4-5 times more to hire unskilled labor! I think it’s the auto unions who are driving the US car manufacturers out of business.
I think its said that someone who spent 4 years in college and graduates with a student loan has to work for about $20-$25/hr while an unskilled worker makes more than that. Even grocery baggers in California supermarkets used to make $27/hr after working there for 7 years because of their union deal! That’s a pretty sweet deal if you can find it.
But moving on…
All of this brouhaha about bailing out the auto industry and how destructive it will be to the country – sounds a lot like the moans and groans of the steel industry (and steel unions) a few decades ago when the Japanese and Koreans were killing the U.S. companies with low prices for bulk steel. The biggies, like U.S. Steel and Bethlehem, went under.
And you know what? Small, progressive and aggressive steel companies arose in the U.S. – not for the cheapo junk steel, but for the better grades, for alloys and for hi-tech steels. And in a few decades, the industry bounced back better than ever. The U.S. was THE place to buy the good stuff. The Far East was where you bought the cheap bulk stuff. Did it ‘hurt’? Yeah, for a while, but you know, we got over it and came through it all the better. We just forgot what we learned.
How many innovative car companies do you think will start popping up in the U.S. when the dinosaur Big 3, and their fat-assed dinosaur management, are finally gone? I don’t think that innovation is completely dead in the U.S.; it’s just been shut down in favor of huge management bonuses paid for killing industries through blind stodginess. Let’s see, how many U.S. car companies were still trying to crank out SUV guzzlers when gas prices were scaling Everest? Let the dead die so that the living can grow.
Sorry, unions and union members, but the day is over that a dumb back can command a sizeable (read uncompetitive) wage and benefit package just for showing up to do a job that, in many cases, a monkey could be trained to do. Better get some education. The new companies will be high-tech – there will be plenty of jobs for those with a reasonable education and training. Dumb backs will get to clean toilets at a commensurate wage.Hear that Fed and Treasury and Congress? Don’t waste money trying to resurrect dinosaur corpses. Put the money into opening up investment in new technologies, good products and well-run companies. Put the money toward training a labor force that can be part of competitive industries. And start the ‘do it or fail’ philosophy in the schools. First-grade would be good.
This reminds of an excellent book I read a few years ago called God Wants You to Be Rich: How and Why Everyone Can Enjoy Material and Spiritual Wealth in Our Abundant World. The author states the example of automated farming techniques introduced in the early 1900s, reducing the workforce required for producing food from 30% of the population to the 3% we have today. Did those people starve to death? No, they went on to find other jobs. I think society, (and by society I mean the US taxpayer) is better served by having an overpaid segment of society go find some other work to do.
And lastly, if the economics isn’t enough, lets look at how poorly managed these companies are.
The execs for the Big Three automakers each took private jets to their testimony before Congress yesterday. Average cost for the flight from Detroit to Washington? $20,000… Northwest had flights available that day for $288 coach, $837 first-class.
“It’s almost like seeing a guy show up at the soup kitchen in a high hat and tuxedo,” Rep. Gary Ackerman, a Democrat from New York, said of the dynamic trio. “Couldn’t you have downgraded to first class or something, or jet-pooled or something to get here?”
Maybe they should have driven?
The southern states make cars like Honda, Acura, and Nissan. They don’t have the high labor rates and are actually profitable car companies. Obviously they’re opposed to the bailout because it use’s their tax money to help the competition.
So what do you think of the car industry bailout?
If you found this post helpful, consider donating to my coffee fund!
- Wife's Professor Weighs In On Dollar Devaluation My wife's currently pursuing her Master in Accouting with emphasis in Taxation. One of her professors is a pretty smart guy and usually spends 6 months of the year travelling abroad and generally enjoying himself. I'm assuming he makes a lot of money from his investments, book royalties and consulting......
- Forex Robo-Trader Interestingly enough there's a company that will take your $10,000 and put it in their "robot forex trader" program. You don't need to know anything about forex trading, the software algorithm takes care of it for you!According to their data, its been back tested and it should get 81% profit......
- Jim Rogers Short On US Financials Jim Rogers doesn't have any faith in the US financial companies. According to Bloomberg: Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Hedge Fund with billionaire George Soros, boosted his bets against U.S. securities firms because of their salary "excesses'' and money-losing investments. Rogers said he increased his year-old short positions in......
Related Websites
- Money Mistake Monday - The Affordable Monthly Payments Syndrome. Have you ever had insomnia and stopped by QVC late and night and thought to yourself "I can afford 5 payments of $9.99, no problem!" while not noticing that the full price of what you are thinking of buying is actually $50? Yea, me too. At least I used to,......
- U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary Flag - 16'' x 24'' U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary Flag - 16'' x 24'' Annin Flags are made in the USA from Annin's own specified fabrics. Annin and Co. has set the pace for flags throughout the world since 1847. All the fabrics used in Annin flags are made to strict specifications developed from extensive......
- What I Should Do With My Windfall Regular readers know that I'm a big proponent of credit cards. I love them. The credit card companies don't love me though. They don't make any money off of me. Last year, I signed up for the Chase Freedom Rewards card because they offer cash back on every purchase you......
[All content is copyright of Living Off Dividends & Passive Income]





November 21st, 2008 at 11:42 am
I can sympathize with those concerned about the economic or social impact of any or all of the North American automakers disappearing forever. But a bailout of a bad business still leaves you with a bad business. The primary issue is the fact that their business model isn’t sustainable and hasn’t been for some time.
It comes down to some very basic business principles.
- There is too much production/supply & not enough demand
- Labour costs are too high relative to margins
- Union expectations for wages, benefits, etc were not sustainable regardless of the good times or bad
- Very poor management who are used to receiving hand outs.
The problem with feeding the bears is that they learn where there’s always food and they start roaming around sniffing for more. I think we see the big 3 go to 2 or 1 after all of this is sorted out. There’s too many autoworkers and credit will continue to be tough to come by for some time. Business fundamentals dictate that the weak operations will be weeded out eventually.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:48 am
In a work … NO.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:49 am
In a word . . . NO.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:14 pm
I completely agree. I was a mechanical engineer for one of the big three in early 2000. At that time I was pricing labour at $70 for skilled labor. This was the senerio at that time:
-I want to place four lag bolts into the cement floor to lag a piece of machinery down.
-I place an order for a Machine Repair person and a Welder. You cannot just hire (internally) a MR as they are assigned in pairs.
-On the date assigned the MR/Welder pair attend the north side of the plant at 6:30am. They recieve their instructions and make there way to the south side of the plant (which is approx a mile in length). They attend the scene and see what is required by the start of first break. 8:30
-After break they order their tool cart to be shipped down by fork truck so they can do work. Since fork trucks are site/time limited their tools arrive roughly by lunch break. 10:30
-After lunch they remove the tools required, drill four holes into the ground, position the machine on top. Time for break 1pm
-After break they place the four lag bolts into the cement, tighten them, and order their tool carts to be returned to the construction side of the plant. They then return to the construction side of the plant in order to pack/wash up to go home. 3pm
Total wage cost to install 4bolts = $70 x 2 x 8hr = $1120. (Note: This figure did not include benefits/supervision/HR expenses)
I saw that this was unsustainable back in 2000, and the big three attempted to spin off subsidaries in order to reduce labor costs. But this coupled with poor model/marketing choices got them to the position they are in.
Will the big three go down? Probably not. Not only do they employ a vocal workforce and a powerful union, they do have ALOT of untapped R&D that have not made it to the market as of yet (DoD engines, bolt on hybrid wheels, HCCI engines). I believe that this is a necessary short term correction. Although I wouldn’t want to purchase stock now, buying LEAPs may be a better position. Anyhoo thats my $0.02
November 21st, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Links to the articles would be useful.
November 22nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
I really like your website, but with all due respect, please dig a little deeper.
You write/quote the following:
“However, if you are a Detroit auto worker with a high school diploma, your total compensation comes to: $67.78 (Ford), $70.43 (GM) or $72.59 (Chrysler) per hour.”
Those figures/estimates represent the total costs of the companies (WHICH INCLUDES RETIREES) divided by the hours worked by CURRENT employees. So, no, the current employees do not receive a compensation package worth $70/hour.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=1026e955-541c-4aa6-bcf2-56dfc3323682
“Let’s start with the fact that it’s not $70 per hour in wages. According to Kristin Dziczek of the Center for Automative Research–who was my primary source for the figures you are about to read–average wages for workers at Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors were just $28 per hour as of 2007. That works out to a little less than $60,000 a year in gross income–hardly outrageous, particularly when you consider the physical demands of automobile assembly work and the skills most workers must acquire over the course of their careers.
More important, and contrary to what you may have heard, the wages aren’t that much bigger than what Honda, Toyota, and other foreign manufacturers pay employees in their U.S. factories. While we can’t be sure precisely how much those workers make, because the companies don’t make the information public, the best estimates suggests the corresponding 2007 figure for these “transplants”–as the foreign-owned factories are known–was somewhere between $20 and $26 per hour, and most likely around $24 or $25. That would put average worker’s annual salary at $52,000 a year.
So the “wage gap,” per se, has been a lot smaller than you’ve heard. And this is no accident. If the transplants paid their employees far less than what the Big Three pay their unionized workers, the United Auto Workers would have a much better shot of organizing the transplants’ factories. Those factories remain non-unionized and management very much wants to keep it that way.
But then what’s the source of that $70 hourly figure? It didn’t come out of thin air. Analysts came up with it by including the cost of all employer-provided benefits–namely, health insurance and pensions–and then dividing by the number of workers. The result, they found, was that benefits for Big Three cost about $42 per hour, per employee. Add that to the wages–again, $28 per hour–and you get the $70 figure. Voila.
Except … notice something weird about this calculation? It’s not as if each active worker is getting health benefits and pensions worth $42 per hour. That would come to nearly twice his or her wages. (Talk about gold-plated coverage!) Instead, each active worker is getting benefits equal only to a fraction of that–probably around $10 per hour, according to estimates from the International Motor Vehicle Program. The number only gets to $70 an hour if you include the cost of benefits for retirees–in other words, the cost of benefits for other people. One of the few people to grasp this was Portfolio.com’s Felix Salmon. As he noted yesterday, the claim that workers are getting $70 an hour in compensation is just “not true.”
Of course, the cost of benefits for those retirees–you may have heard people refer to them as “legacy costs”–do represent an extra cost burden that only the Big Three shoulder. And, yes, it makes it difficult for the Big Three to compete with foreign-owned automakers that don’t have to pay the same costs. But don’t forget why those costs are so high. While the transplants don’t offer the same kind of benefits that the Big Three do, the main reason for their present cost advantage is that they just don’t have many retirees.
The first foreign-owned plants didn’t start up here until the 1980s; many of the existing ones came well after that. As of a year ago, Toyota’s entire U.S. operation had less than 1,000 retirees. Compare that to a company like General Motors, which has been around for more than a century and which supports literally hundreds of thousands of former workers and spouses. As you might expect, many of these have the sorts of advanced medical problems you expect from people to develop in old age. And, it should go without saying, those conditions cost a ton of money to treat.
To be sure, we’ve known about these demographics for a while. Management and labor in Detroit should have figured out a solution it long ago. But while the Big Three were late in addressing this problem, they did address it eventually.
Notice how, in this article, I’ve constantly referred to 2007 figures? There’s a good reason. In 2007, the Big Three signed a breakthrough contract with the United Auto Workers (UAW) designed, once and for all, to eliminate the compensation gap between domestic and foreign automakers in the U.S.
The agreement sought to do so, first, by creating a private trust for financing future retiree benefits–effectively removing that burden from the companies’ books. The auto companies agreed to deposit start-up money in the fund; after that, however, it would be up to the unions to manage the money. And it was widely understood that, given the realities of investment returns and health care economics, over time retiree health benefits would likely become less generous.
In addition, management and labor agreed to change health benefits for all workers, active or retired, so that the coverage looked more like the policies most people have today, complete with co-payments and deductibles. The new UAW agreement also changed the salary structure, by creating a two-tiered wage system. Under this new arrangement, the salary scale for newly hired workers would be lower than the salary scale for existing workers.”
November 22nd, 2008 at 9:04 am
You might find this article interesting, as well, which mentions dependency ratios.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/08/28/060828fa_fact
November 22nd, 2008 at 9:45 am
Hi George,
thanks for the clarification. this $70-75 number has been bandied about a lot. It has been in various newspapers. It is even in Robert Kiyosaki’s new book “Financial IQ”.
The link mentions a quote for Center for Automative Research, (not Automotive Research) stating essentially that the $70/hr number is obtained by adding up GM’s total labor, health, and pension costs, and then dividing by the total number of hours worked. In other words, it includes all the health care and retirement costs of retired workers.
Since this isn’t the cost they pay to existing workers, which is about $28/hr, we should ignore the $70/hr number.
While I agree this is an important consideration, when the cost of supporting retired workers EXCEEDS the wages paid to currently employees, where do you put that cost? It is a labor expense, since it is money you’re paying for labor that occurred in the past.
I feel it should be counted as a labor cost.
However, the best thing government can do to bail out GM & Ford is institute nationalized health care. Ford & GM could then stop paying for the health care of retired employees which is killing their profitability.
I would rather have the government in the business of health care, than automobile manufacturing!
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:48 am
I absolutely agree about the unions. They killed my hometown in central PA years ago. I first learned about their ridiculous inefficiencies regarding tenure and seniority abuse when I was in high school. My brother then got his master’s degree in labor relations and I finally learned the truth; unions were started by the socialists who left the Soviet Union and they just used American nationalistic propaganda to further their cause.
The $70/hour may not be the most accurate number in this case but it illustrates the point. Unions cost companies more money. More money means less profit margin. Can it be argued that the higher-ups take a large chunk of that profit? Yes, but not nearly as much as the combined salaries of the other employees. What concerns me about unions, however, is not the salaries of the employees per se because I believe everyone in a company is an investment. I believe in general that union employees are not as good an investment as non-union employees – especially tenured union employees. Once you get to the point where you cannot be fired, I’ve seen that abuses are rampant and the production of that so-called highly-valuable employee drops to nothing.
Do I blame the current auto-industry crisis totally on the unions? Of course not. Look at the vehicles that have been made by the big 3 in the last 30 years. They have no clue what people are really looking for.
They’re also under the delusion that a good company should support near-term profits in lieu of long-term goals. That is a failure of leadership in the highest levels. I’ve worked in Fortune 100 companies for the past decade or so and I’ve seen in almost every case how managers move money from one pot to another and pull in orders to make this quarter’s numbers look good at the expense of the company as a whole. Senior management should be putting processes in place that will reward behavior that will support the profit, growth and stability of the company, not just the stock price and bonuses of the quarter.
I believe Congress should spend the money to help those employees find work elsewhere and let these companies fall prey to the market as they should have done years ago. Why should they bother becoming efficient if they just get bailed out and keep doing what they’re doing?
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:14 am
“However, the best thing government can do to bail out GM & Ford is institute nationalized health care. Ford & GM could then stop paying for the health care of retired employees which is killing their profitability.
I would rather have the government in the business of health care, than automobile manufacturing!”
I agree with you one hundred percent on this. The foreign automakers in the US don’t have the same issues (expenses) with older workers, to the extent that domestic automakers have them; healthcare expenses do make our companies less competitive, relative to automakers in other countries.
You are absolutely correct in counting the benefit package for current employees and for retirees as a labor cost, but the way you initially portrayed it suggested that the current workers were receiving salary and benefits of $70/hour. (Many others elsewhere did this, too, and I finally had to say something.) Clearly, lifting the burden of paying for healthcare would help our companies have a more level playing field with those from other countries, and help us compete. Watching our industrial base wither away is something that greatly concerns me. According to one study that focused on China, “total energy subsidies to Chinese steel from 2000 to mid‐year 2007 reached $27.11 billion.” How can we best compete given this kind of thing??
In other news, congrats on your new passive income record for the month of October, by the way; that is terrific! I like looking at the breakdown of figures.
November 23rd, 2008 at 11:39 am
Seth Godin had a good post about this on his blog:
http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2008/11/what-to-do-abou.html
One of his comments was that 90 yrs ago, there were THOUSANDS of car companies, many of which were driving the innovations that we take for granted today. Electric ignition, independent suspension, etc.
I think Warren Buffet commented that if there is a bailout, he would specify that the top managers of the car companies be required to kick in a substantial amount of their own personal money to give them an incentive to do the right thing with it.
November 24th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
The problem with universal health care in this country is that nobody wants to pay for it, not even the taxpayers.
The only 2 possible ways (sure there are many more problems but these 2 are probably the biggest) to cure this is 1) limit malpractice lawsuits and 2) bring down cost.
#1 can only be possible if we put a moratorium on malpractice lawsuit, period. You don’t like it? There are other countries besides the good ol’ U S of A to take care of your damn cancer, thank you very much, with your hard earned union money.
#2 can only be possible if we start doing some damn H1-B on doctors, RNs, etc. If we can do H1-B on engineers, why can’t we do it for doctors and RNs as well? Try this and let’s see doctors and nurses making only 5 digits in rural areas. You don’t like it? There are other countries besides the good ol’ U S of A to take your hard earned Stanford medical damn degree to practice your damn medicine, thank you very much.
November 27th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Nice read! It is obvious that the auto makers can’t exist as they are today. The question becomes can they change? Personally, I doubt that they can. All the bailouts need to end. It is little more than corporate socialism. If I make stupid decisions, I will (and should) suffer the consequences. The same is true for any business.
Best Wishes,
D4L
December 6th, 2008 at 5:26 am
Don’t bail out any of them (the Big Three) They need to cut cost and drop the price of car in half if they want the average joe to buy them .Simple as that.
just average Dwayne
December 6th, 2008 at 5:31 am
Don’t bail them out (The Big Three) Tell them to cut operation cost and drop the car prices in half so the average joe can buy them.
The average guy
Dwayne