How To Reduce A Trillion Dollar Deficit
Stanford professor John Taylor had an alarming op-ed piece in the Financial Times on the Trillion Dollar deficits
“I believe the risk posed by this debt is systemic and could do more damage to the economy than the recent financial crisis. To understand the size of the risk, take a look at the numbers that Standard and Poor’s considers. The deficit in 2019 is expected by the CBO [congressional Budget Office] to be $1,200bn (€859bn, £754bn). Income tax revenues are expected to be about $2,000bn that year, so a permanent 60 per cent across-the-board tax increase would be required to balance the budget. Clearly this will not and should not happen. So how else can debt service payments be brought down as a share of GDP?
“Inflation will do it. But how much? To bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to the same level as at the end of 2008 would take a doubling of prices. That 100 per cent increase would make nominal GDP twice as high and thus cut the debt-to-GDP ratio in half, back to 41 from 82 per cent. A 100 per cent increase in the price level means about 10 per cent inflation for 10 years. But it would not be that smooth – probably more like the great inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s with boom followed by bust and recession every three or four years, and a successively higher inflation rate after each recession.“
A large tax increase would significantly hamper the economy growth and prolong the recession. So that’s probably not the path that the government will follow. On the flip side, 100% inflation over a 10 year period which causes the dollar to devalue significantly may not be an optimal solution either. (But if it is, you should be buying gold!)
May be a middle path which favors taxing the rich and a Europe-style Value-Added-Tax on certain items will be chosen. Whatever they chose, I hope they know what they’re doing.
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May 30th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Nirav, this is the problem with professors having opinions. Some people may want to think those opinions are more meaningful or well-informed because a given professor happens to be employed by a school like Stanford, or NYU (Roubini). But, such professors opinions about the future are no better than yours or mine. Professors should teach, and not opine.
The first thing wrong with Taylor’s opinion is his lack of command of basic financial math. A 100% change in nominal GDP over 10 years (and the resultant 50% cut in debt to GNP ratio) does not require a 10% annual inflation, but a 7.2% inflation, according to the Rule of 72, something any college finance or economics professor should know. I fully expect a 6-7% inflation within 2 years and think the Fed and Treasury are actually trying to orchestrate that.
The second thing wrong with the Professor’s opinion is the statement that a “permanent 60% tax increase would be required” to balance the budget. That statement is inconsistent with the 10% inflation conclusion. I think taxes could be left unchanged, or only increased to the degree Obama proposes, along with spending decreases, and inflation will do the rest. Not only will inflation cheapen the debt over time, it also will increase the number of dollars in which the debt is paid off. Anyone who owned a home in the 1970s remembers what a good deal inflation was at that time, so long as the mortgage was fixed. You could buy a $40K home, watch it appreciate to $80K with inflation, but pay off the debt as though it were still $40K. To the degree the Feds fix our interest costs (by issuing 30 year bonds which they should be doing in a big way right now), we will all benefit from the repayment in debt with ever cheaper dollars.
Inflation is the only way out of this box. I think the 1970s scenario is not only likely to occur, but welcome. It helped us resolve our Johnson era “guns and butter” Great Society debt of the 1960s, which in its time, was every bit as problematic as where we are today.
May 30th, 2009 at 9:52 am
[...] first thing wrong with Taylor’s opinion is his lack of command of basic financial math. A 100% change in nominal GDP over 10 years (and the resultant 50% cut in debt to GNP ratio) [...]
May 30th, 2009 at 11:30 am
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May 31st, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Well, we in Malaysia seem to be doing well we have high growth and high inflation. An example of inflation would be the local desert “cendol” bought about a month ago at the price of $1.20 in local currency would now sell for $ 1.80 in local currency. Job growth is also strong as we have 2 jobs for every worker and Malaysia imports in foreign labour to do jobs that local workers do not want to do. Hence our problem in Malaysia is now high inflation and good news, high growth.. We do not understand why the Western Media keeps on saying we are in a Recession. Yes our economy slowed down in March 2009 but after that period our economy is now experiencing high growth and high inflation thanks to China’s strong buying of Malaysian goods and services, thank you China ! So please do not say Malaysia is in a Recession when it is not, only the US is in a Recession, the rest of the World is booming thanks to China !
June 7th, 2009 at 4:07 am
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June 7th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
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