More Carnage In The Lending Business

Shares of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) gapped down today nearly 90%!!! Thats after they already dropped from $30 to $10 last week! Despite the rebound in the market today, most home-lending companies were down. And later in the day, the market was down on AHM’s news.

I think this might be an indicator of the growing liquidity crunch. The excess liquidity that was sloshing around seems to have dried up rather suddenly. After Bear Stearns reveavled that its subprime hedge funds were worthless, it seems that everyone’s suddenly concerned that the AAA ratings issued might not really be true and the subprime debacle might spread to Alt-A and prime paper too!

John Devaney, CEO of United Capital Markets, a hedge fund that focuses on buying subprime ARM-backed securities, has been forced to sell his $23.5 million 145-foot yacht and his $16 million Aspen vacation home. Things must be really bad when you have to sell your boat and home!

It also seems that leveraged-buyout party is close to an end. The highly anticipated Chrysler/Cerberus has stalled. Even Blackstone is nearly 36% off its highs. And now it seems that Bernanke won’t bail out investors by cutting interest rates.

Looks like a real good time to be a buyer of gold coins and gold stocks!

Countrywide Down (Finally!)

Like I mentioned in March, CFC finally has began to crack. I tried unsuccessfully to short it a few times and then I missed the big decline!

Insiders have been dumping for quite a while now, so they pretty much now what was coming. Even if they claim that the housing slump was unexpected. Kind of strange considering that I’ve been expecting a housing decline for 2 years now, especially in Southern California.

The housing slump in SoCal is far from over. Prices have dropped 10-30% and I expect another 20-30% drop over the next few years. If we see a large contraction in liquidity, it might be more severe. There’s talk that the cheap money for the private-equity buyouts is drying up. Mortgages have become more difficult to get. The 100% financing for broke, jobless borrowers with lousy credit has completely disappeared. Countrywide stated that the delinquencies in Alt-A and Prime mortgages has been much higher than expected. Could the availability of these loans also dry up?

I sold naked calls on August iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR) on Monday. I would’ve made more money if I had bought puts instead, but I still did okay. The calls are almost worthless and I can buy them back to close out the position for 70% less than I paid. I’ll be keeping a close eye on CFC and other home-builder stocks to see if there are any other shorting opportunities in future.

Time To Jump Into Shipping & Steel Stocks?

According to the Financial Times,

The Baltic Dry index, the best gauge of dry bulk shipping conditions, last week rose to a record of 6,706 points, up 52 per cent on the year. Although the index has moved lower since, analysts believe freight costs will stay high. The index, which hit its previous all-time high last May, has risen almost fivefold since 2000. This increase threatens to add to already rising prices for agriculture, base metals and ore commodities.

John Kemp, of Sempra Metals in London, says: “The world economy is growing faster than the availability of transport capacity.”

The world economy will expand this year at a rate of 4.9 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund. If correct, it would be the first time since the 1970s that the world economy had grown by more than 4 per cent annually for five consecutive years.

The steel industry, which accounts for roughly half of dry bulk ship cargo, is especially strong, analysts say. The International Iron and Steel Institute forecasts final steel demand will grow by almost 6 per cent in 2007.

Sounds like time to load up onto the Steel and Shipping companies. Mittal Steel (MT) and Frontline (FRO) have been on a tear in the past 6 months. Check out this chart comparing them against the S&P500. They’re both up 60% in the past 6 months! FRO also has a 12% yield!

[Image of MT & FRO vs S&P500]

DOW 14,000 – All Time High

The broke the 14,000 level today. Despite Bear Stearns warning that their subprime mortgage hedge fund was worthless and Ben Bernanke stating that the subprime related losses would be in the range of $100 Billion the market was up! It just shrugged off the bad news and went on its merry way.

Interestingly, regarding Bear Stearns, Bloomberg reports “It was Bear Stearns, the biggest broker to hedge funds, that nine years ago declined to join 14 other investment banks in the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management LP. Then last week, as New York-based Bear Stearns pleaded for help to rescue two of its hedge funds teetering on the brink of collapse, many of the same firms refused to come to its aid”. If you’ve never heard of Long Term Capital Management, I suggest you read the very interesting book,
When Genius Failed: The rise and fall of LTCM
. It was basically a hedge fund started by some Nobel prize winners that ended up in smoke.

Going back to the stock market, when the market ignores terrible news and goes up, its usually a sign that the market is very bullish and will continue for a while. Consider that many companies are reporting bad earnings, and the stocks are not being punished.

Motorola (MOT) posted a $28 Million loss and the stock is up. Citizens Republic Bank (CRBC) announced its non-performing loans had quadrupled and it took a $20 Million write-off and its stock jumped up too!

Simply amazing.

At least the Dow Transports ($TRAN) is also hitting new highs along with the Dow Industrials ($INDU). If the TRANs had been lagging, the rally would be suspect.

We have a global credit bubble, a housing disaster in slow motion, a subprime mortgage fiasco, hopelessly underfunded government liabilities, an unsustainable trade deficit, negative U.S. savings rates, a collapsing dollar, oil depletion and creeping inflation, and yet the market is going higher!

Oh well, if you can’t beat them, join them!

Petro-Yen Instituted By Iran

More and more countries are growing weary of the US Dollar. Latest in the list is Iran.

Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, after Iran’s central bank said it is reducing holdings of the U.S. dollar.

Iran wants yen-based transactions “for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,” according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments “effective immediately,” according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.

I guess they’d rather get paid in the world’s most undervalued currency which has a good chance of strengthening over the next few years, rather than the USD which looks like its just going to keep on depreciating against all other currencies.

Warren Buffett has hinted that he’s made a significant currency play but of course, he won’t say which one. Speculation is that its either Japanese Yen, Indian Rupee, Chinese Remnimbi or Australian Dollar. But Buffett, like many foreign countries isn’t too keen on keeping his US Dollars either.

The Yen is severely undervalued but until the BOJ increases rates, it’ll likely stay weak. The good news is that the economy is strengthening, so this finally seems like a possibility.

With the Indian 10 yr Reserve Bank Bond yielding 7.5%, and it having appreciated 20% against the USD in the past 2 years, it doesn’t surprise me that it made the list.

With a huge stake in Petro-china (PTR), investing the chinese currency sounds redundant, so I doubt Buffett would buy it.

The AUD has appreciated rather nicely against the USD over the past 2 years. That looks like a likely candidate too.

What Is Microfinance?

Here’s a post from the archives. I had saved it and never got around to actually publishing it!

Who the hell is Mohammed Yunis and why on earth did he win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Well he pioneered the use of micro-loans to poor entrepreneurs in Bangladesh. Dubbed as the “Banker to the Poor”, he began fighting poverty during a 1974 famine in Bangladesh with a loan of $27 out of his own money to help 42 women buy weaving tools to save them from the clutches of the usurious moneylenders.(Yeah, back in the day, $27 was actually worth something).

So whats so revolutionary about microfinance that he deserves the Nobel Prize?
Apparently people think that it will become a catalyst to eradicating poverty. Even the Economist had an article about some guy who was giving out micro-loans to poor tea plantation workers in Assam, India to buy Solar powered headlamps(made by his own company!) but the economics made sense and it was a win-win for everyone.

So how do you benefit? You can become a lender yourself through  and offer micro-loans to other people starting with as little as $50. And thus you can do your part to eradicate poverty. Yeah!

How Trade Tariffs Hurt The Economy

Since I’m not smart enough to explain how trade tariffs work (or even spell tarrifs), I’ll just shameless quote Christopher Hancock from The Penny Sleuth.

We believe trading partners are better off specializing in the good in which they are the low-opportunity cost producer. We believe restrictions on trade decrease the wealth of our country.

We believe tariffs benefit the select few at the expense of the entire economy and its citizens.

Think of it this way…simple example…China produces widgets for Wal-Mart at $20 a widget. American producers can’t do the job for less than $25. So American widget makers may lose their jobs. They plead to Washington, and Washington comes to the rescue. Congress slaps a $10 tariff (tax) on all Chinese imports. Wal-Mart now turns to the American widget producer.

But the retail giant must now pay $25 for each widget they stock. Consequently, they raise the shelf-price for widgets by 25%. Unfortunately, many American consumers simply can’t afford the price increase. Wal-Mart sales drop. The company is forced to cut costs. They lay off 10% of their work force.

The point: The number of jobs protected by import restrictions will be offset by jobs lost in other industries. And to top that, widgets are now more expensive for everyone in the American economy.

It gets better: In response, China decides to slap tariffs on American exports. Now American semiconductor makers can’t sell their products to Chinese computer makers. Sales drop. More jobs are lost.

And here’s where it gets worse: China cleverly cedes to America’s demands. The yuan appreciates 40%. Now every good we consume sporting the “made in China” labels gets noticeably more expensive. And just try buying something that’s not made in China.

Furthermore, China no longer has to keep the yuan from appreciating relative to the dollar. Meaning, China’s dollar demand drops. The fundamental need to buy U.S. Treasuries no longer exists. The dollar falls even further. Investors around the globe now requrire a higher rate of return to hold U.S. dollars. Interest rates rise. The economy slows…and so on…and so on.

There really isn’t anything left for me to say (except buy foreign-currency denominated investments)!

Dollar Hits A New Low

This week the US Dollar sank to 25 year lows against the Pound, AU/NZ Dollars and other currencies. There’s a saying that money flows to where its treated best.

What does that mean? It means people are converting their money into currencies with the highest yields.

Yields on the AUD,NZD and South African Rand are quite a bit higher than here in the US. Their economies also seem to be growing faster than the US’ too. SA Central bank Governor Tito Mboweni said last week that interest rates were ‘too low’. The South African Reserve bank raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points on June 7th and may raise them again on Aug. 16. Not surprizingly, the South African Rand is sitting at a six week high.

I don’t know if its already too late to the party, but buying foreign currency ETFs or stocks with foreign exposure might not be a bad idea. I’ve done very well with Anglo Amercian (AAUK) and BHP Billinton (BHP).

How Capitalism Really Works

I was talking to another investor about the BlackStone IPO. He was planning on investing and wanted to know my opinion. My only opinion is that the ticker should have been BS instead of BX!

Why is that? Because its a fraud. The only reason Stephen Schwarzman is taking the company public is because the market is willing to pay much more than the company is worth. The company doesn’t make any nor does it really provide any services. Here’s an interesting story about what these private-equity firms really do.

The “New Capitalism” is not only more global than the older form, it is also more focused on finance. Imagine a man who makes his living digging ditches. He may hire himself out at a daily rate of, say, $25. The old capitalists would have paid no attention to him – he is just one of millions of small entrepreneurs getting by in life.But today’s financial hustlers will spot the opportunity. Let’s take him public, they will say. We’ll raise his daily rate to $30…pay him his $25…and the rest will be our “profit.” We’ll sell shares to the public at a P/E of 20…let’s see, 20 x $5 x 250 days per year = $25,000. All of a sudden, the ditch digger has a capital value of $25,000. Then, they borrow $20,000 from a hedge fund…and pay it to themselves for structuring the deal. Now, the hustler has $20,000 in his pocket, the hedge fund has a high-yield bond worth $20,000; the shareholders have $25,000 worth of stock; and the poor man is still digging his ditches.

Then, an even more ambitious wheeler-dealer will come along and decide to “roll up” the whole industry – bringing the ditch diggers together into a multi-national consortium. Now they can all do cross-border transactions…including derivatives. And now ditch-digging is a major business, suitable for large investors…with more investment coverage and a higher P/E ratio. Soon all the world’s banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and hedge funds have some of the ditch digging paper – debt or equity – and billions in fees and commissions have been squeezed out of
ditches by the financial industry.

That, patient reader, is the way (the world-over) that industries and assets are now being bought, sold, refinanced, leveraged, re-jigged and resold. In the old days, companies went to investors or to banks for capital and cultivated a relationship with them that was long and fruitful. Now, it’s all wham-bam-thank-you-ma’am capitalism. Inquiring capitalists now only want to know one thing – how fast can we do this deal? How many points can we get out of it and how much leverage can we get? And whom can we dump it on, when we’re done?

Housing Still Sucks!

According to Chris Gaffney of Everbank.com, who’s Japanese REIT CD I recommend, said today

The markets seem to be waking up to the fact that the housing market is no where near the bottom. Borrowers are being squeezed by the treasury markets recent sell off which has increased 30-year mortgage rates the most since 2004. The National Median Home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression. An executive at the giant bond fund PIMCO said it best: “It’s a blood bath. We’re talking about a two to three year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock markets and corporate profit.” The US housing market has provided the economy with support through the creation of wealth and the seemingly endless ATM of price increases. The recent increase in yields, along with the sub prime mortgage meltdown is going to kick this support right out from under the economy, and the dollar is going to be drug down along with it.

Sounds like bad news for the housing market and for the US dollar too. I’m a big fan of investing in real estate, but extreme caution needs to be exercised right now. Don’t be in a hurry to buy property just because you read some book or attended some seminar. Especially in places like Calfornia, Florida, Nevada, Michigan, Illionois and Ohio which lead the nation in foreclosures.

I continue to own homes in Indianapolis, Indiana I’m not concerned because it has really good job growth. So its not that I’m soured on real estate investing, its just that the easy money is long gone and its time to be very careful. Real estate won’t be as forgiving as it was 5 years ago if you by wrong in this cycle.