War On Terror Meets High Finance

For all you Ken Follett and Frederick Forsyth fans who love thrillers about global intrigue, NPR reported a very interesting story today.

In 2005, the U.S. government suspected a Macau bank of laundering North Korean funds. Under the global jurisdiction of the Patriot Act, the U.S. froze $25 million of the bank’s North Korean assets. This week, North Korea announced they want their money back, or else the country’s nuclear program will continue.

However, North Korea insists they be reimbursed through a private bank, and nobody wants to be the guy signing the check. “No bank is willing to help return the money to North Korea,” reported NPR this morning. “Banks fear helping North Korea would taint the banks in the eyes of the U.S. Treasury Department, even though the request came from the U.S. State Department.”

An unnamed Las Vegas casino may stage a buyout of Banco Delta Asia (the Macau bank that currently holds the frozen assets) in order to refund the money. And what does it gain in the transaction? An almost impossible-to-get Macau gaming license.

Macau is rapidly becoming the world’s gambling capital. Gambling is illegal in Chian except for Macau, so the chinese are flocking there. According to the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), Macau’s tourist receipts are projected to rise from US$2.87 billion in 2003 to US$7.37 billion by 2010. Check out the Wynn Macau and the Venetian Macao to see how much they’ve spent on their casinos.

Maybe its time to invest Macau?

Daimler Pays To Get Rid Of Chrysler

After acquiring Chrysler in 1998, Daimler Chrysler AG has cried uncle and found someone to take the loss making unit off their hands. Private Equity firm Cerberus, is paying Chrysler (note: thats Chrysler, not Daimler) $7.5 Billion to acquire 80% of it. Daimler is also chipping in approximately $650 million to get rid of $18 Billion of pension and health care liabilities.

You have to be desperate when you pay someone to take over a business! Not entirely sure what Cerberus gets out of it. I think it’ll probably be a strip and flip deal that will entail taking it public again and huge profits for Cerberus (and not the subsequent stockholders). Although, public-private-public deals like Burger King (BKC) have done pretty well (even if the initial period was a bit rocky).

I saw a news item about India introducing $3,000 cars. I don’t know if theres a market for such “toys” in the US, but I’m sure the US auto-manufacturers are worried. Plus, there’s a good chance that we’ll see a recession late this year. (33% chance of recession according to Greenspan, although to be fair his exact words were “2-1 chances we won’t see a recession” which is effectively the same thing only with a positive spin on it!)

Why Inflation Is Bad

When the Fed prints more currency notes (to pay for the war and the interest on all the T-bills we’ve dumped on the rest of the world) it devalues each existing dollar in circulation. This is an inflation in the money supply and its bad for us in the long term.

Here’s a quote from Ron Paul’s home page explaining why.

The greatest threat facing America today is not terrorism, or foreign economic competition, or illegal immigration. The greatest threat facing America today is the disastrous fiscal policies of our own government, marked by shameless deficit spending and Federal Reserve currency devaluation. It is this one-two punch– Congress spending more than it can tax or borrow, and the Fed printing money to make up the difference– that threatens to impoverish us by further destroying the value of our dollars.

The Fed’s inflationary policies hurt older people the most. Older people generally rely on fixed incomes from pensions and Social Security, along with their savings. Inflation destroys the buying power of their fixed incomes, while low interest rates reduce any income from savings. So while Fed policies encourage younger people to overborrow because interest rates are so low, they also punish thrifty older people who saved for retirement.

The financial press sometimes criticizes Federal Reserve policy, but the validity of the fiat system itself is never challenged. Both political parties want the Fed to print more money, either to support social spending or military adventurism. Politicians want the printing presses to run faster and create more credit, so that the economy will be healed like magic- or so they believe.

Fiat dollars allow us to live beyond our means, but only for so long. History shows that when the destruction of monetary value becomes rampant, nearly everyone suffers and the economic and political structure becomes unstable. Spendthrift politicians may love a system that generates more and more money for their special interest projects, but the rest of us have good reason to be concerned about our monetary system and the future value of our dollars.

Finally a politician who understands how inflation caused by government sanctioned counterfeiting is bad for the us and is willing to tell the truth about it. Gasp, is there really an honest politician? I’d vote for him!

No More 100% Financing On Home Loans

Countrywide has announced that beginning 12 March 2007, it will no longer be offering 100% financing to home borrowers. This follows its announcement earlier this month that delinquencies among non-sub-prime borrowers are up this year.

It was just a matter of time before the lenders started tightening their loose lending standards. As I’ve said before, I think their will be widespread losses across the spectrum of lenders, whether they’re sub-prime or not.

What A Day!

Today was a great day in the markets. Well actually the Dow, Transports, Industrials and Russell sank on inflation worries. Gold spiked up $23 and Oil closed above $60.

Novastar Financials(ticker: NFI), another mortgage lender, tanked 42%.

And the Bank of Japan raised interest rates a quarter of a percent. I didn’t think they had the back bone to do it! The BoJ’s prime lending rate is now a whopping 0.5%! But they said they’ll take their own sweet time in considering future rate increases so the Yen didn’t spike on that news.

Well a good day for gold and oil is a good day for my portfolio!

Friday Rant

I came across this article last night, 32 Reasons Why The Stock Market Will Jump This Year.

While its written as a serious prediction, I personally feel its more like a christmas wish list or a list of finalist answers at the Miss World Beauty Pagent!. Here are some of the gems

#1. Housing and Auto-manufacturing weakness will subside
Based on what? Major layoffs in both industries?

#5. Unemployment with stay at record lows.
Hmm…with the massive layoffs in Housing and Auto-manufacturing, you really think so?

#7. Inflation will continue to decelerate, with CPI averaging around 2.0%.
Hmm…ever since the minimum wage was jacked up, small business around where I live jacked up the price of everything along with it. That doesn’t sound like low inflation to me. Anyone who thinks that CPI is an accurate measure of inflation makes way too much money to begin with. Once you take out all the factors that cause inflation, of course you’ll be left with 2%. What a doofus.

#11. The US Dollar will firmer up and even maybe become stronger
With almost all the worlds major currencies strengthening against the USD how is this going to happen? Oh yeah, Bank of Japan is enforcing a weak Yen policy. And of course the USD will strengthen against the Iraqi Dinar! And with China owning a Trillion USD do you think a strong Dollar is actually in our interest????

#12. The U.S. budget deficit, which is currently 1.5% of GDP, well below the 40-year average of 2.3% of GDP, will continue to trend lower as healthy economic activity continues to boost tax receipts substantially more than estimates.
Uh…isn’t the US GDP is currently mainly comprised of government spending? Thats not really a show of healthy economic activity. Although it is true that the tax receipts are up more than estimated.

#15. The mania for commodities will completely end.
Yeah Right!!! All those millions of people in India and China who can now afford to buy a car and a decent place to live will choose to buy plastic go-karts and tents instead of regular cars and houses that use steel & copper. Is he completely blind to the global industrialization thats taking place? Every year China adds to its electricity generating capacity by the same amount as the entire UK. This electricity comes from coal and is used to make more cars and power more houses. The dude’s smoking crack now.

#16. Oil falls to $35 to $40 per barrel and eventually $20-$25.
#19. Gas prices will drop below $4/mcf.
#20. Gold will drop below $550 per ounce
This was written on the 1st of Feb 2007 when Oil was around $50/barrel. Its since gone up to nearly $60 and is probably on its way up. Corn has quadrupled to over $4/bushel making ethanol almost as expensive as gasoline now. Similarly Gold is also up to $665. I actually bought some GLD (the gold ETF) 2 days ago and I’m already up 7%. I predict its going to $800 in 2 years.

#17. Peace in the Middle East.
HAHAHA.

Some of the points are actually valid, but the ones I’ve mentioned are pretty stupid. Like I’ve said before, I’ve taken exactly opposite bets in my stock investing, so of course my views are out of line with the authors.

What do you think?

Walmart Rant

In a previous post about Walmart, someone complained that Walmart was the evil corporation that needed to be kept out of town by the local government due it is unfair employment practices.

I don’t know why people are anti-business. We saw the same thing with the oil companies recently. Policitians are also quick to bash a profitable company and give hand-outs to companies that should be allowed to go under. “Walmart sucks because it doesn’t pay its employees $30/hr and give them a ferrari or lamborghini for christmas. Of course I don’t shop there and so I don’t care about their prices. All I care is that Walmart takes care of my constituents and get me re-elected.”

Walmart’s job as a public company is to increase shareholder value. It does this by reducing all costs across the board. If you don’t like this, don’t shop there or work there.

Complaints about Walmart putting mom & pop stores out of business aren’t valid. If you can’t compete on pricing then compete on service. If you can’t do that, move into another business. That’s how capitalism works. If you don’t like that, there are several socialist/communist countries which would welcome you.

Complaining that Walmart puts people out of work is equally stupid. Henry Ford put horse and buggy drivers out of business. John Deere put thousands of farm hands out of business. Maybe we close down all the factories and go back to the stone-age?

Having the government keep Walmart out of town is not the solution. We’re currently in a cycle where its cheaper for us to buy Chinese goods than it is to make them here. That’s the real problem. And because of it millions of manufacturing jobs have been lost and are continuing to be lost. But the government is fixing this problem by devaluing our currency as fast as it can! Eventually our currency will be worthless and a lot of manufacturing jobs will come back!

San Diego Is Anti-Poor

San Diego just blocked Walmart’s plans for a new Super Store arguing that that Wal-Mart puts smaller competitors out of business, pays workers poorly, and contributes to traffic congestion and pollution.

Of course the council failed to state that social engineering isn’t their job and that the people who currently work at Walmart seem very happy with their jobs and have never protested their pay or anything else. Nor the fact that Walmart’s lower prices put competitors out of business but help low-income families buy more stuff and actually increase their standard of living. Of course no one wants low income families shopping in their neighborhoods so the easiest solution is to ban the superstore itself.

Another bad idea is the forced raise of the minimum wage. Mom and pop stores who are trying to stay afloat in California due the increase in real estate prices [& therefore taxes on triple-net leases when the properties are sold], increase in electricity & heating costs and the slow down in the housing market are hurt the most. [50% of new jobs created in the state since 2000 were real estate related. As the house market slides, the jobs will disappear as will the income of the people still in the business]. As a result they will be less likely to hire new employees or maybe even cut down on the hours of existing employees. At the same time, prices will have to be increased to make up for the increase in the wages. So the poor employees will see no real benefit in the wage hike while feeling the brunt of the increase in prices.

But atleast we’re still better than France, where the employer can’t fire anyone even if the business files for bankrupcy!!!!

Bad Day For The Dollar – Great For Retailers!

Today was black friday and atleast in San Diego it seemed like everyone was out shopping like its going out of style. The local best buy had great deals on TVs.  A buddy picked up 2 flat screens. One 32″ LCD HDTV for $475 [after a $400 discount] & another Plasma 47″ HDTV for $1000 [after a $700 discount]. Of course they only had about a dozen of these that sold out immediately but luckily we had friends camping out at various stores so with a few well placed phone calls he was able to get in on the action!

He tried to pursuade me to get one too, but I’m really happy with my 19″ regular TV! However I did buy a very nice laptop from Costco for under a $1000. The good thing about Costco is that if you aren’t satisfied you can return your purchase at any time. Apparently people have been abusing the system so for laptops the cutoff is 6 months.

Anyway, today was a particularly bad day for the dollar. It was down against most major currencies including the Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, Aussie & NZ Dollar and Indian Rupee. Just in time to make my vacation to south east asia just a tad more expensive!

Like I’ve been harping on before, I think the easiest way to get out of the multi-trillion dollar debt is for the Feds to inflate the value out of the dollar. This will provide the necessary “soft” landing for real estate. And by soft I mean a 20-40% price drop on the coasts, as opposed to a 50-60% drop. I belive its a trend that will continue for the next year or so. This will likely result in commodity inflation while the economy experiences deflation in terms of manufactured products, squeezing margins, profitability and wages. Not a good sign. [of course, this is just my opinion and could be wrong]

Gold was also uptoday to $637 and Silver is up to nearly $13.50. Finally my gold & silver coins are coming back up in value. I bought a lot of old goin coins & a few new ones for almost the bullion price. I think my average price is around $668/oz. Not bad considering a few of them are roughly 100 years ago and 2 of them are in the 200 year range! My belief is that once gold starts its upward trend again, coins will again become collectibles and will outpace the intrinsic value of the metal content.

Syria to promote Petro Euros

I just read online that Syria just announced that it would start charging for its oil in euros instead of the tradition dollar. In researching this topic i found a very interesting article. Don’t know if its conspiracy theory or not, but its interesting reading nonetheless.

The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
here’s an excerpt.

The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
by Krassimir Petrov

I. Economics of Empires

A nation-state taxes its own citizens, while an empire taxes other nation-states. The history of empires, from Greek and Roman, to Ottoman and British, teaches that the economic foundation of every single empire is the taxation of other nations. The imperial ability to tax has always rested on a better and stronger economy, and as a consequence, a better and stronger military. One part of the subject taxes went to improve the living standards of the empire; the other part went to strengthen the military dominance necessary to enforce the collection of those taxes.

Historically, taxing the subject state has been in various forms—usually gold and silver, where those were considered money, but also slaves, soldiers, crops, cattle, or other agricultural and natural resources, whatever economic goods the empire demanded and the subject-state could deliver. Historically, imperial taxation has always been direct: the subject state handed over the economic goods directly to the empire.

For the first time in history, in the twentieth century, America was able to tax the world indirectly, through inflation. It did not enforce the direct payment of taxes like all of its predecessor empires did, but distributed instead its own fiat currency, the U.S. Dollar, to other nations in exchange for goods with the intended consequence of inflating and devaluing those dollars and paying back later each dollar with less economic goods—the difference capturing the U.S. imperial tax. Here is how this happened.

Early in the 20th century, the U.S. economy began to dominate the world economy. The U.S. dollar was tied to gold, so that the value of the dollar neither increased, nor decreased, but remained the same amount of gold. The Great Depression, with its preceding inflation from 1921 to 1929 and its subsequent ballooning government deficits, had substantially increased the amount of currency in circulation, and thus rendered the backing of U.S. dollars by gold impossible. This led Roosevelt to decouple the dollar from gold in 1932. Up to this point, the U.S. may have well dominated the world economy, but from an economic point of view, it was not an empire. The fixed value of the dollar did not allow the Americans to extract economic benefits from other countries by supplying them with dollars convertible to gold.