Commodity Play: Billion Dollar Companies Swallowing Each Other

I own a few shares in a company called Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). Monday they announced a bid to buy copper producer Phelps Dodge Corp. (PD) for $25.9 Billion. [yeah thats Billion]. Interestingly enough, as part of the bid FCX will pay $500 million if it backs out while PD will pay $750 million if it bails.

As if that wasn’t exciting enough, yesterday an analyst floated a rumor that BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) would shortly announce a bid for FCX!!! Apparently the market liked that idea because prices for FCX and BHP did well. I also own shares of BHP. BHP is involved with oil, gas, copper, silver, zinc, lead, uranium, and copper by-products, including gold, aluminum, coking coal, iron ore, manganese, diamonds and fertilizers.

If you’re wondering why I own stock in BHP & FCX its because I think we’re going to see high inflation in commodity prices and a devaluation of the dollar. [search this blog for “inflation”]. Also read this post on “Hot Commodities”.

Here’s a good post on what the PD acquisition means at The Strategic Investor.

On another note, my dozen shares of PetroChina (PTR) have been doing pretty well. They’re up 10% in the month that I’ve owned them.

Left Behind Games

I recently read an email about how Left Behind Games[ticker LFBG.OB] was one of the next hottest gaming companies in town.

The email said it qualified on Chuck Jaffe’s stupid investment of the week but went on to refute that claim stating its a christian based family game and based on the number of books sold under the same title, it should do pretty well. At the time it was trading at $5.20. Since then its up 40%.

Yes, thats 40% in 5 days!!! While I didn’t buy any and don’t plan to chase it either, I have been following it with interest. Why is the stock going up on relatively no news??
Yes, its getting a lot of media coverage but the company isn’t releasing any news.[a product soon, but thats been known for a while] It kind of reminds me of the tech bubble days.

The email got sent out to probably around 100,000 investors.[my estimate of the circulation based on indirect data from the sender.] If only 5% or 5,000 people bought $1000 worth of stock, thats $5 million worth of stock, or about 5 million shares[or 40% less depending on when they bought it]. The average volume is about 30,000 shares, but in the past week its been over 100,000 per day. Thats half a million dollars worth of stock every day!!!

So did the email cause the stock to go up or was it other reasons??? Not that I care either way, but if I can find out definitely, I can definitely take advantage of such emails in future!!!

Lets see how it plays out in the next few weeks. After the readers stop buying will it fall back to $5 or does it still have some real strength.