Its Vacation Time!

There won’t be too many posts for the next 4 weeks. I’m currently travelling in India this week. On Sunday I leaving for Bali. After that I’m going to Angor Vat, Cambodia, Krabi in Thailand and then Singapore.

India is currently booming. The GDP growth for the last quarter was 9.2% annualized. The equity markets are at an all time high. Property prices are booming as well. I bought an pre-construction apartment here several months ago and its up already 40%, although its appreciation will probably slow down to reasonable levels now, prices have become incredibly expensive.

Real Estate Trends

I get monthly mailings from John Burns on national real estate trends and forecasts. His newsletter is very good, however I got one that was what I would expect from a recruiter instead. But it has some good advice so I’m sharing it anyway.

Sadly, most of our builder clients are ending 2006 with fewer employees than they started. However, they also believe they are far better positioned to succeed in 2007 than they were several months ago, and they continue to search for even better people (but not more people).

As you fine-tune your business plans for 2007, I thought I’d share with you the acronym that we use to help with personnel decisions. I look for PALS – people who are Passionate, Articulate, Likable and Smart. If I have a team of PALS, we’ll be more successful than anyone else. Here is what I mean:

Passionate For me, this is the most important characteristic. Passionate people are infectious. They come up with great ideas. They are not satisfied with just being good – they want to be great. They motivate others on the team to be even greater. They want to be much better than the competition.
Articulate Articulate people get to the point quickly. Their empathy and tone of voice allow for open, productive dialogue. They are equally as good at listening as they are at speaking. Their written words are brief and leave little room for misunderstanding.
Likable Likable people are the ones you look forward to seeing. They smile and laugh a lot. They are willing to help wherever needed. Their ethics are uncompromised. You would trust them with your checkbook.
Smart Smart people make the right decisions quickly. They have experience to draw from, but don’t rely on “rules of thumb” that may no longer apply. They are often highly educated and well-respected. They understand and appreciate the importance of all aspects of the business.

Some may argue that the most important acronym in 2007 will be CASH. If you have the right people, I believe you are likely to generate the most cash.

Beware When Shopping For Camera’s Online

I recently lost my beloved Canon Powershot SD300 camera. I decided it was time for an upgrade so I started researching the different options available. As obsessive as I am about doing the research I went far beyond what I originally intended to do and ended up trying to figure out the top of the line camera in the non-professional consumer space.

I found out that the Nikon D80 10.2MP Digital SLR Camera Kit with 18-135mm AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor Lens which retails for about $1300 and its close competitor the Canon XTi 10.1 Megapixel Slr Camera with 2.5″ LCD With Ef-s 17-85MM Zoom Lens which retails for around $1220 were the best picks for under $1500.

I would have to chose the Nikon D80 over the Canon XTi because of 3 reasons:
1. The Canon doesn’t fit well in my hands. If my hands were slightly smaller like my wife’s it would’ve fit well, but it just feels like its going to slip out.
2. The battery life on the Canon is about half as long as the Nikon. Plus the battery life indicator shows full, half and quarter as opposed to the somewhat more accurate meter on the Nikon.
3. No spot metering. [I’d probably never use it anyway]

Anyway, after doing all this research I got excited and decided I’d buy one. I found a few sites that offered phenomenal deals on both cameras. It seemed like I could get either kit for roughly $800 at sites like ExpressCameras.com. It sounded too good to be true. I did some research and I found its a scam. According to several review sites, customers were charged extra for batteries, straps, lens covers,etc which normally come standard. Not only that but there was heavy pressure to upsell onto much more expensive equipment. Also, quite a few people got wrong kits and had to dispute it through their credit card companies. That didn’t really sound like something I’d enjoy going through to save a few bucks.

Anyway it put me off buying the damn camera so instead I just bought the Canon Powershot SD450 Camera. I figured that it made more sense since I had an extra battery and charger already! Plus I saved on a $1,000!

Private Equity Funds on the Rise

Doesn’t it seem that there’s been a resurgence of Private Equity buyouts of familiar public companies???

Readers Digest just agreed to be acquired for $1.6 Billion. 2005 was infact a banner year for corporate buyouts with targets like Hertz, Toys R Us, Neiman Marcus, La Quinta and Dunkin’ Brands, the owner of Dunkin’ Donuts. The targets keep getting bigger as more pension funds, institutions and wealthy individuals hand money to private-equity firms. I think even grocery chain Albertson’s was bought by a team of investors for about $9.5 billion.

Some of the bigger Private Equity Funds are well known names like KKR, Apax, Blackstone and Carlyle Group. Here’s what Wikipedia has to say about KKR

KKR helped develop and popularize the acquisition concept known as the leveraged buyout (LBO) by creating a series of limited partnerships to acquire various corporations, which they deemed to be underperforming. In most cases, KKR (often with management) financed up to twenty five percent of the acquisition price with its own capital and borrowed the remainder through bank loans and by issuing high-yield bonds, while having a more favorable approach towards the latter. KKR would often ensure that the target company’s management retained an equity interest to create a personal financial incentive for them to approve of the takeover and work diligently towards the success of the investment.

The bank loans and bonds used to finance the acquisition were collateralized by the tangible and intangible assets of the target company. Because the bondholders only received their interest and principal payments after the banks were repaid, these bonds were deemed riskier than investment grade bonds in the event of default or bankruptcy, and popularly became known as “junk bonds.”

Investment banks such as Drexel Burnham Lambert, led by Michael Milken, helped raise money for leveraged buyouts. Once the targeted company was acquired, KKR would help restructure the company, usually selling off certain underperforming assets and implementing a series of cost-cutting measures. The new, “leaner and more efficient” company could then be resold, often at significant return on investment.

While it sounds surprizingly neutral, KKR’s LBO’s were usually bad for individual shareholders. Read Barbarians At The Gate for an interesting account of how KKR successfully staged a hostile takeover of RJR Nabisco.

There are usually two exit strategies for a corporate buyout. Sell it to a big corporate buyer or floating it on a public stockmarket through an initial public offering (IPO). Earlier this year Burger King went public after having its costs reduced and being laden with debt! After dropping nearly 30% the stock is now nearly at IPO price!

Seems to be a pretty profitable business. However before you rush out and stick your money in them, while top few private-equity funds have actually beaten the stock market in the past few years, most of them did far worse after you factor in their fees. The total global market size of these funds was about $180 billion in 2004 so there are quite a lot to choose from.

And the Financial Services Authority[which is kind of like the SEC for the UK] even declared that the collapse of such leveraged-buyout firms was inevitable. Although to be fair, they don’t just do leveraged-buyouts. They also provide venture capital, mezannine financing and growth capital.

Anyway, back to my original point. Doesn’t it seem like we’ve been hearing a lot about private equity funds buying various companies and taking them private? Do you think the Sarbanes-Oxley act had something to do with it or is it just one of those cyclical things?

Your Identity Stolen Through a Sealed Envelope!

Thanks to MARK NESTMANN, Privacy Expert & President of The Nestmann Group
www.nestmann.com for this.

Credit card fraud is a huge problem worldwide. Online merchants alone suffer losses of more than US$60 billion each year, according to research firm Financial Insights.

Unfortunately, credit card companies have no incentive to reduce credit card fraud. If someone uses a credit card fraudulently, the merchant that accepts the card-not the credit card company-pays for the loss. Consumers are mostly off the hook, too, with their losses (at least in the U.S.) limited to US$50 per card in the event of theft or fraudulent charges.

Now, credit card companies have introduced a new type of “contactless” credit card that eliminates the need to swipe the card to make a purchase. The cards contain a radio frequency identification (RFID) chip that transmits authorization data by radio waves.

Incredibly, the credit card companies that have sent out tens of millions of these
contactless cards in the last few months didn’t bother to include any security features in the new system, such as encryption. Anyone equipped with a RFID card reader, costing less than US$150, can pull up your name, card number, and expiration date if they get close enough to your card.

Simply aiming the card reader at your wallet or purse, where you keep your credit cards, is enough. It’s a little like wearing a T-shirt with your name, credit card number, and expiration date displayed on it. Moreover, it’s even possible to retrieve the personal information from a new credit card while it’s still sealed in its original envelope.

Naturally, the credit card companies deny there’s any problem, so it’s up to you to protect yourself. I recommend that you cancel any credit card accounts in which the issuer refuses to provide you with a non-RFID equipped card. That precaution just might save your identity from being stolen.

Save $100 On A DELL Computer Through Bank of America

If you have online banking with Bank of America, they will subsidize your Dell PC purchase to the tune of $100.

Of course, here’s the fine print, enlarged so you don’t get fooled.

To qualify for the $100 cash rebate, the customer must have one or more products with Bank of America, enroll in Online Banking (new enrollments only) between 10/30/06 – 1/19/07 and purchase a Dell computer through www.dell.com/bankofamerica between 10/30/06 and 1/19/07. The customer must then submit a rebate request through www.bankofamerica.com/onlinerebate and supply the Dell Service Tag number, full name, home mailing address and Online ID. If the customer meets the requirements above, they will receive a direct deposit of $100 into their checking or savings account within 60 days of submitting the rebate. If the customer does not have a checking or savings account with Bank of America, a check will be mailed to the address on record with the bank within 60 days of submitting the rebate.

Bank of America offer available only on Dimension™ E521 desktop and Inspiron™ E1505 notebooks.

Sucks if you already have an account, but I guess you could open a new one!

Teenage Kid Scams $500,000 Through Pump And Dump

Check out the incredible story of Jonathan Lebad, master stock manipulator who was just 14 years old when he made $800,000 through online pump and dump schemes for various stocks he bought. This was during the Dot-com era in 1999 and 2000 and even the SEC tried to shut him down, but couldn’t because he hadn’t really broken any laws. Read the story here.

The SEC backed down because he hadn’t really broken any laws. All he did was post about 200 messages a day pumping each stock he bought and then selling it when it had gone up substantially. There isn’t really anything illegal about that. The SEC settled with him to the tune of $285,000 and he walked away with $500,000. Nice chunk of change to have when you’re 15!!!!

On another note, CEO of Computer Assassins[ahem, I mean Associates](ticker symbol:CA) Sanjay Kumar was sentenced to 12 years in jail & $8 million fine for accounting fraud and obstruction of justice. He could get out as early at 2016 if he promises to behave and not pull any more scams!

Wasn’t there a mother who murdered her new born infant and got 2 years in jail??? Should white collar crimes carry a more severe punishment than murder or violent crimes???

More Free Trades At TDAmeritrade

I recently realized I had a few thousand dollars worth of stock bought on margin in my trading account. The brokerage is charging me over 9.5% interest on that money!!! In the meanwhile, I had money lying in my bank account at less than 1%. I quickly transferred the money into my brokerage account.

I also sent an email to customer report saying that I had opened a new account with $2k in it, I would’ve gotten 10 free trades. Since I was transferring more than that into my account, I’d really really appreciate it if they could comp me a few free trades. I wasn’t expecting them to but they almost immediately comped me 10 free trades. Thats a hundred bucks right there!

While they’re a lot more expensive than Interactive Brokers, their service is far better!

Home Prices Fall 9.7%: An Explanation

Rather than paraphrase the explanations and pretend I’m intelligent, I’ll just paste them below.

These were taken from today’s Wall Street Journal.

U.S. new-home sales jumped unexpectedly in September by 5.3%, but prices were lower. The average price of a new home decreased to $293,200 in September, from $314,000 in August and $299,600 in September 2005, according to Commerce. The median price fell 9.7% last month, to $217,100 from $240,400 a year earlier, representing the sharpest drop since December 1970. The August 2006 median sales price was $239,300. Meanwhile, new-home inventories receded in September. Economists comment on the drop in price and what it means for the future of the market.
* * *

The newspaper headlines will blare that new-home prices fell by 9.7% year over year, the largest drop since 1970. Admittedly, this is a shocking headline, but do not make too much of it. First, as we have noted many times, the mix changes every month so that these price numbers do not pertain to a comparable mix of homes over time. If people are scaling back their desires, if the regional mix changes, etc., then the numbers get skewed. Moreover, the new-home side of the equation should be the most volatile, because the inventories of new homes all have to get sold quickly (whereas homeowners can simply take their existing homes off the market for a while when market conditions ease). It is easy to imagine a world in which new-home prices fall by 5% or 10% and the average of all home prices are steady or even somewhat higher. We will wait for the Ofheo figures to get a better read on overall home prices. In any case, the faster new-home prices fall, the quicker those inventories are going to get sold and the faster we can get past this housing correction. –Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital

The median new home price fell by 1.7% [in the third quarter] across the nation. However, the median sales price rose in each of the major geographic regions (Northeast +19.3%, Midwest +4.0%, South +0.7%, West +1.6%), which suggests that some of the home price decline is due to a shift in the regional pattern of sales toward lower-priced regions. –Bear Stearns Economics
* * *

The really startling number in this report is the 9.7% plunge in median prices compared to a year ago. No doubt a good part of this drop reflects an increase in the number of smaller homes in the sample, which is not adjusted to take account of changes in the mix of homes sold from month-to-month. Still, mean prices also slumped, to -2.1% from +6.4% in August, so we think there probably has been a serious drop in prices per square foot. –Ian Shepherson, High Frequency Economics