In order to be eligible, you need to be a member of their “Tasting Club”, which already has 100,000 members. For an investment of $2,890 USD or $5,760 USD, you can get a juicy annual dividend of 6.72% or 7.29% delivered to your doorstep every other month.

If you’ve ever been to high-end confectionery, you’ll know they charge a couple of dollars for each piece of candy.  So spending a few thousand quid might not be such a bad investment. Especially since bank yields aren’t very impressive right now. At least it guarantees you won’t have to spring for chocolate for three years, even if the rest of your portfolio tanks!

I wouldn’t be surprised a chain of British gyms are next in line to offer special “weight-loss bonds”, with special dividend rates for people who bought the chocolate bonds!

But the real question is whether Inland Revenue will be accepting their tax payment in chocolate too?

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• April 21, 2008 -- 1st Carnvial of Dividends & Passive Income
• March 21, 2008 -- What About LOR-Lazard World Dividend & Income Fund?
• April 5, 2010 -- The Economy Smells Like Roses

Professor Morici, of the University of Maryland, is critical of excessive government spending. He claims that whenever the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 150%, you run the risk of hyperinflation or “the Chinese buying up Wall Street”, a reference to China being the largest foreign lender to the US government. Either way, he claims that we will run the risk of losing our financial standing.

On a brighter note, the UK is trailing right behind us with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 78%.  But the real leader of pack is Japan, with a whopping 227%! Not to worry, we’re nowhere close to Japanese levels yet!

After WWII, our debt stood at 125% of our GDP and we were able to bring it under control. Let’s hope we can do the same thing once again. Meanwhile, we can all watch our share of the federal debt over on http://www.usdebtclock.org, and how the national debt seems to be growing $50,000 every second!

With the passing of the Health Care Bill, there is a slew of tax increases that will go towards paying for it. I don’t think any of them are going towards paying down our ballooning debt. Congress probably feels that inflating it away is the easiest solution! And it is, provided the inflation comes in an orderly fashion. But what if it doesn’t?

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• January 24, 2008 -- US Inflation Much Higher Than Reported: Get Ready For 10% Inflation

Buoyed by gold’s action, silver has also seen some price movement. After dropping as low as $15.13 in February 2010, it has jumped nearly 30% to 19.52. (Silver prices hit $19.70 today in intraday trading).

Seems like Marc Faber was right about gold being a bargain at $950/oz! Since that post about 2 years ago, gold prices are up about 29% versus the S&P 500 which is down about 8%.

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• February 18, 2009 -- Demand For Gold Tops $100 Billion!
• February 2, 2009 -- Peter Schiff: Dollar Is The Next Bubble To Collapse

After European Union eventually bails out Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy the euro might trade on parity with the dollar!

I wish I hadn’t been so quick to close my long position on the EUO May $21 calls last week!

With the financial crisis and currency devaluation, the long term prospects for gold are still looking good too.

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Interest rates are artificially low and we won’t see rates this low for a long, long time. What are your thoughts on buying vs renting for a first timer? In my gut I know that housing is still overvalued, but should I jump on low rates and lock in a fixed payment knowing that future inflation will make this payment even smaller?

Most people do not pay cash for their homes, they get a mortgage. And the monthly payment they can afford, along with the current interest rate determines how large a mortgage they can qualify for.

Lets do some back-of-the-envelope calculations. If you can qualify for $2,000 a month (lets  ignore principle, taxes and insurance for now) and rates are 5%, you’ll qualify for approximately $480,000 worth of mortgage. If rates rise to 6%, you only qualify for $400,000 worth of mortgage.

Did you see how a 20% rise in interest rates caused a 17% decline in the amount of mortgage you would able to qualify for?

If your income isn’t going to increase 20% over the next 2 years, but rates might rise 20%, less people will be able to afford homes. So the pool of available buyers for our $480,000 house has become a lot smaller and demand drops off. According to economic principles, as the demand decreases, prices should decrease as well. Thus, the price should drop to $400,000 to match the purchasing power of buyers.

Additionally,  the banks have unsold inventory sitting on their books – in many cases they haven’t even foreclosed on people who stopped making their payments a year ago.

So we have a scenario where the number of homes on the market is likely to increase or stay flat, interest rates are going to increase, and incomes aren’t going anywhere.

The only reasons you should be buying a house right now are

1. You’re starting a family, don’t want the hassle of moving and can afford a reasonably large house which you will live in for several years
2. You can afford to pay cash and don’t care where the market is going
3. You have specialized knowledge of the markets and can get a much better deal than your local home buyer. Real estate investors will be able to take advantage of the current environment to buy cheap homes that generate positive cashflow.
4. You have a stable job, expect to be in the same place for several years and don’t want your landlord telling you that you can’t paint the living room bright pink

In short, don’t be mesmerized by the tales of real estate agents and Realtors telling you that interest rates will go up and price you out of the market. Only a booming economy with people falling over themselves to buy houses can do that. It may seem like people are out buying homes, but its a temporary phenomena created by all the government to stimulate the housing market. When this stimulus ends, homes prices will probably drift down by the same amount. On a similar note, ZeroHedge has a good article on how dropping homes prices are inversely correlated with rental rates, something I have not been able to verify with my properties!

Only buy a house if you have a good reason to buy one. Don’t get suckered in to it.

At some point we will see inflation, but it’s next to impossible to figure out when.

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